February Update:

Entering the Post-NIL Era

It is a brave new world; the House v NCAA settlement is now being codified into NCAA legislation opening a new era of direct cash payments to student-athletes in addition to scholarships. I want to share how the recruiting world is changing, how it is NOT changing, and how it will impact you. It is important to emphasize that this is what we know at the time this article is posted, things are changing at an ever-increasing rate, BUT the overall arc of impacts is so far, very consistent.

First, let’s talk about the new, post-NIL world. The thing that makes it “post-NIL” is that colleges are no longer just facilitating payments to recruits from donors, but will now, for Power 4 conference schools and others who “opt-in” to the House settlement framework paying up to $20 million each year (and then a bit more) DIRECTLY to student-athletes over an above any athletic scholarship. These payments come with SIGNFICANT caveats. Schools CAN pay up to $20 million for the 2025-26 school year, we expect the vast majority of this money to go to football student-athletes with most of the remainder going to basketball (both men’s and women’s) and bits and pieces to other sports. The Trump Department of Education has weighed in with an opinion that Title IX will NOT apply to these payments, so you can bet the good ol’ boys will be giving this money almost exclusively to male athletes. However, at the time of this writing, at least 260 student-athletes have already opted OUT of the House settlement and there are at LEAST three different lawsuits against the NCAA based on the argument that House was too favorable to the colleges and athletes are entitled to more compensation. It is entirely possible that the House framework does not survive all the way to the new school year and is replaced by a formula that provides student-athletes with even greater payments!

Along with these new payouts, at this Power 4 and P4 adjacent football/basketball level, more money is increasing the sophistication of efforts to identify and evaluate talent. There are outside analytics companies selling services and a whole new ecosystem of “player acquisition” staffers to figure out how to best spend this money, despite the efficacy of these efforts remaining an open question. Meanwhile, traditional college recruiting, even in NCAA Division 1 looks a lot like the iconic scene in the movie “Moneyball” where the scouts are talking about a prospect and judging his hitting based on how attractive his girlfriend is.

Outside of Power 4 football, basketball and a few outlier programs in other sports at these schools, recruiting remains unchanged. Coaches are charged with assembling their rosters in addition to all other duties and with little or no training. So, among the 1,900 colleges outside the Power 4/Football Bowl Subdivision the median NIL deal is in the low 2 figures and athletic scholarships are discounts that have the same value as merit scholarships or any other form of institutional aid. The bifurcation of college sports has become more dramatic and looks to be increasing at an ever-faster rate, even as the difference in talent for most sports remains relatively minimal.

There are also other significant trends on the horizon:

• For Power 4 and other “opt-in” conferences/institutions, roster caps rather than scholarship limits will be the new reality. This is going to result in some current student-athletes at Power 4 schools being forced into the transfer portal or simply off of rosters. The impact of this on recruiting overall may not be significant, but it will be widely reported and weaponized by bad actors in the recruiting space.

 

• Title IX is now a dead letter, the pullback of what the current administration calls “DEI” will either remove any institutional structures that would defend equity in athletics or put them in a position to manage a strategic retreat after decades of progress. To the extent women’s sport continues to thrive, it is based on the commitment of participants and institutions. There is no possibility of enforced compliance at this point.

 

• NCAA Division 1 is splitting into “opt-in” and “opt-out” conferences/programs on top of the FBS/FCS divide. It remains to be seen if these institutions can find common ground to stick together or if the Power 4 conference schools will want to formally break the division, or even the NCAA apart.

 

• NIL regulation needs to be formalized in some way, it is not sustainable to have student-athletes making decisions based on significant amounts of non-guaranteed money… it would benefit everyone to regulate this space and eliminate fraudulent inducements. There are competing proposals and whatever body can assert authority here will have the inside lane in terms of regulating everything at the highest level. The SEC has been leading an effort to create a breakaway, non-NCAA organization to do this.

 

• Congress is considering various proposals and may act. What that might look like is difficult to predict and could be a game changer in unpredictable ways. Given the current patchwork of state laws around NIL, some federal regulation seems inevitable, but the timeline is, at best, unclear.

 

For the VAST majority of prospective student-athletes, the rules are NOT changing in a significant way. You won’t see that on ESPN, but it is wise to remember.

As always, if you are looking for the individualized or institutional consulting help that puts you ahead of your peers, check out our services here! You can make an initial appointment through the link on our homepage! School administrators and counselors access our free resources, appointments and programs for school collaboration here.

For more information, contact Dave Morris, College Counselor & CEO, College Athletic Advisor, [email protected] or phone: (719) 248-7994

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